Tracking 11,709 AI launches on Hacker News

An analysis of every Show HN post about an AI product from 2022 through 2025 (11,709 products) found that about half are now dead, with launches rising from roughly 2 a day in 2022 to nearly 60 a day in 2026 while newer cohorts die faster: 2025 launches were 4.2x more likely to be dead within 18 months than 2022 launches (42% vs. 10%). The same trend appeared among 1,280 Y Combinator AI companies, though they die far less often, and launches with 100+ Hacker News points were about half as likely to be dead as those under 10.